Integration and relative value of biomarkers for prediction of MCI to AD progression: Spatial patterns of brain atrophy, cognitive scores, APOE genotype and CSF biomarkers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study evaluates the individual, as well as relative and joint value of indices obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) patterns of brain atrophy (quantified by the SPARE-AD index), cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers, APOE genotype, and cognitive performance (ADAS-Cog) in progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) within a variable follow-up period up to 6 years, using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative-1 (ADNI-1). SPARE-AD was first established as a highly sensitive and specific MRI-marker of AD vs. cognitively normal (CN) subjects (AUC = 0.98). Baseline predictive values of all aforementioned indices were then compared using survival analysis on 381 MCI subjects. SPARE-AD and ADAS-Cog were found to have similar predictive value, and their combination was significantly better than their individual performance. APOE genotype did not significantly improve prediction, although the combination of SPARE-AD, ADAS-Cog and APOE ε4 provided the highest hazard ratio estimates of 17.8 (last vs. first quartile). In a subset of 192 MCI patients who also had CSF biomarkers, the addition of Aβ1-42, t-tau, and p-tau181p to the previous model did not improve predictive value significantly over SPARE-AD and ADAS-Cog combined. Importantly, in amyloid-negative patients with MCI, SPARE-AD had high predictive power of clinical progression. Our findings suggest that SPARE-AD and ADAS-Cog in combination offer the highest predictive power of conversion from MCI to AD, which is improved, albeit not significantly, by APOE genotype. The finding that SPARE-AD in amyloid-negative MCI patients was predictive of clinical progression is not expected under the amyloid hypothesis and merits further investigation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".