A multi-agent simulation of the pharmaceutical supply chain
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The pharmaceutical supply chain is composed of multiple firms interacting to produce and distribute drugs in an uncertain environment. In this work, we develop and validate a multi-agent simulation of the supply chains associated with the pharmaceutical industry. We demonstrate that the operating norms of a particular industry can be accurately represented to create an industry-specific model capable of tracing its evolution. Our model is initialized using 1982 financial data with 30 manufacturers, 60 suppliers, and 60 distributors. Three types of drugs, blockbusters, medium and small, with a 12-year lognormal product life cycle are released by manufacturers. Each quarter the distributors bid for future market share of the released products, and the suppliers bid for acceptable margins. Mergers and acquisitions, based on assets and expected profitability, are allowed at each level. One thousand replications, each lasting the equivalent of 39 years, are used to validate the model.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it