Resolving allegations of oil damage to incubating pink salmon eggs in Prince William Sound
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council concluded that oil caused mortality of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) eggs in Prince William Sound streams. Their conclusion was based primarily on Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) studies which reported that mean mortality of embryos in eggs was higher in oiled than non-oiled streams when sampled shortly after spawning completion. However, developing embryos are vulnerable to shock mortality for a period of 20 days after fertilization, and the embryos in eggs from the latest spawners were still in the sensitive period at the time sampling took place. We argue that the original ADF&G analysis should have included sample timing in statistical comparisons of mortality between streams. Analysis of a subset of the ADF&G data showed that sampling shock was a major source of embryo mortality in these samples, and that source of mortality in the original survey would likely have been mistakenly interpreted as an oiling effect. Compensating for sample timing removed all statistical evidence for an oiling effect in the data subset. We conclude that the ADF&G study design confounded the ability to assess for the effect of oil exposure on pink salmon eggs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".