New methods for estimating pretest probability in the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The clinical assessment of the probability of pulmonary embolism is a key step in proposed diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism, because the interpretation of noninvasive test results is conditional on the pretest probability derived from the presence or absence of clinical factors. The past year has brought important progress in the general area of clinical prediction of pulmonary embolism with the publication of two new simple clinical prediction rules. Each of the prediction rules includes a total of seven clinical variables that, when combined, allow for the categorization of patients into categories of low, intermediate, or high pretest probability of pulmonary embolism. Although these clinical prediction rules are perhaps only slightly better than the estimates of experienced clinicians, they provide an explicit method for estimating the probability of PE as an adjunct to diagnostic testing. Further validation work is now needed to assess how well these new prediction rules perform in settings other than the derivation sites.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.015 | 0.038 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.009 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".