CALIBRATING FUNCTION POINT BACKFIRING CONVERSION RATIOS USING NEURO-FUZZY TECHNIQUE
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Software size estimation is an important aspect in software development projects because poor estimations can lead to late delivery, cost overruns and possibly project failure. Backfiring is a popular technique for sizing and predicting the volume of source code by converting the function point metric into source lines of code mathematically using conversion ratios. While this technique is popular and useful, there is a high margin of error in backfiring. This research introduces a new method to reduce this margin of error. Neural networks and fuzzy logic in software prediction models have been demonstrated in the past to have improved performance over traditional techniques. For this reason, a neuro-fuzzy approach is introduced to the backfiring technique to calibrate the conversion ratios. This paper presents the neuro-fuzzy calibration solution and compares the calibrated model against the default conversion ratios currently used by software practitioners.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it