A method for estimation of a land-cover change matrix from error-prone unit-level observations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Coregistration and classification errors can seriously compromise direct unit-level (pixel) estimation of land-cover change from remotely sensed data. A more robust alternative to a pixel-based estimation of change is warranted. In a proposed method, spatially adjacent pixels are grouped into 3 × 3 clusters, and the change matrix is obtained from cluster-specific and land cover specific pixel counts at two points in time. The diagonal of a change matrix is estimated by combining an estimate of the temporal correlation of cover type specific, cluster-level counts with an estimate of the odds ratio of no change. Off-diagonal elements are least-squares solutions to a set of linear constraints or obtained by iterative proportional fitting under a model of quasi-independence. In a study with data from five sites, the proposed method produced less biased estimates on three sites if the mean coregistration error was in excess of 0.3–0.7 pixels and on four sites if classification accuracy dropped below 0.9.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".