Dynamic risk analysis in construction projects
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The occurrence of one risk may exacerbate other risks or portfolios of risks due to their highly complex interrelated structures and existing interactions. Hence, the cumulative impact of a chain of risks may be greater than the sum of their individual impacts. Commonly practiced risk analysis approaches do not account for these interactions and face deficiency in providing reliable information regarding the actual impact of the identified risks. This paper presents a new approach to construction risk analysis where the interrelated structure of risks and their interactions have been modeled through the governing feedback loops. The proposed methodology is a system dynamics-based approach for risk analysis and assessment. The full impact of a risk or a set of risks may efficiently be modeled, simulated, and quantified in terms of time and cost by the proposed object-oriented simulation methodology. To evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology, it has been incorporated into a bridge construction project. The interrelated structures of the identified risks have been modeled and their cumulative consequences simulated and quantified as an illustrative example.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it