A Demographic Model for Small Area Population Projections: An Application to the Census Metropolitan Area of Hamilton in Ontario, Canada
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper reports on the development of a demographic model capable of projecting the spatial distribution of population by age and sex for small areas such as census tracts. The proposed modeling framework makes use of two components: the Rogers multiregional population projection model and the aggregate spatial multinomial logit (ASMNL) model. The Rogers model utilizes cohort vital statistics on fertility, mortality, and migration to project the progression of population by age and sex at the regional level, while the ASMNL model extends the capabilities of the Rogers model enabling it to provide population estimates at a finer spatial scale. The model is applied to the Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area in Canada. Our simulation tests highlight the robustness of the proposed modeling approach in utilizing small area characteristics and regional vital statistics to perform small area population projections.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it