Plant extinction dynamics in an insular metacommunity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Changes in the composition of local communities through time (i.e. species turnover) is a common phenomenon in insular biology. However, the mechanisms promoting variation in species turnover, both among islands and among species, are poorly understood. In an effort to better understand the causes of variation in species turnover, we evaluated the colonization and extinction dynamics of plant populations on 18 small islands off the west coast of Canada. In 1997, we quantified total population sizes of 10 woody angiosperm species. A decade later, we resampled islands to test whether: 1) species turnover occurred, 2) colonization events were offset by extinction events, 2) variation in extinction rates among islands was associated with population sizes, average plant heights, island area, island isolation or each island's exposure to ocean‐born disturbances, and 3) variation in extinction rates among species was associated with plant life history traits. Results showed that extinction events outnumbered colonization events, suggesting that the metacommunity is in ‘disequilibrium’. Variation in extinction rates among islands was unrelated to island area and isolation. However, extinction rates increased with exposure to ocean‐born disturbances and decreased with both initial population sizes and average plant heights. Species with thicker, tougher leaves (i.e. high leaf mass per area) were less prone to extinction than species with thinner, more papery leaves. Overall results indicate that species turnover is common and that it is generated primarily by extinction. Variation in extinction rates appears to result from an interaction between among‐island effects (exposure, population size and plant stature) and among‐species effects (leaf toughness), suggesting that ocean‐born disturbances play a key role in determining metacommunity structure.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".