How much do genetic covariances alter the rate of adaptation?
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Genetically correlated traits do not evolve independently, and the covariances between traits affect the rate at which a population adapts to a specified selection regime. To measure the impact of genetic covariances on the rate of adaptation, we compare the rate fitness increases given the observed G matrix to the expected rate if all the covariances in the G matrix are set to zero. Using data from the literature, we estimate the effect of genetic covariances in real populations. We find no net tendency for covariances to constrain the rate of adaptation, though the quality and heterogeneity of the data limit the certainty of this result. There are some examples in which covariances strongly constrain the rate of adaptation but these are balanced by counter examples in which covariances facilitate the rate of adaptation; in many cases, covariances have little or no effect. We also discuss how our metric can be used to identify traits or suites of traits whose genetic covariances to other traits have a particularly large impact on the rate of adaptation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it