Estimation of juvenile survival, adult survival, and age-specific pupping probabilities for the female grey seal (<i>Halichoerus gryprus</i>) on Sable Island from capture-recapture data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We use a longitudinal capture-recapture study from resightings of grey seals (Halichoerus gryprus) branded as young on Sable Island to estimate (i) the juvenile survival rate from the time of branding to age 4, (ii) the yearly adult survival rate from age 4 to age 9, and (iii) the age-specific pupping probabilities, i.e., the probability that a seal will first give birth at each age. The estimated juvenile survival rate from branding (just after weaning) to age 4 ranged from 70 to 80%; however, the lower values are known to be biased low because the study was terminated early. The estimated yearly adult survival rates for ages 4-9 ranged from 0.88 to 0.92·year-1. The estimated probabilities of first giving birth to a young seal (pupping) at ages 4-9 are 0.28, 0.41, 0.18, 0.06, 0.05, and 0.02, respectively, and the estimated average age of first pupping is 5.2 years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".