An individual-based phenology model for western spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract An individual-based phenology model for western spruce budworm, Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), was developed using stage-specific rates of development, oviposition, and egg hatch observed under controlled conditions at several temperatures. Model output was compared with age distributions estimated by sampling field populations of budworm at several locations in British Columbia, Canada, over many years. The fit of the model was very good for the entire life cycle of the insect. We further validate the model by comparing output with independent observations of moth flight phenology of C. occidentalis and Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens) in populations of Cypress Hills, Canada and illustrate spatial variation in the seasonal occurrence of early-stage feeding western spruce budworm over most of its range in western Canada. In addition to serving as the underlying structure for the modelling of population dynamics at the seasonal level, the model can be used to predict the time of occurrence of different life stages for precise timing of pest management operations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".