The 2011 Virginia earthquake: What are scientists learning?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Nearly 1 year ago, on 23 August, tens of millions of people in the eastern United States and southeastern Canada were startled in the middle of their workday (1:51 P.M. local time) by the sudden onset of moderate to strong ground shaking from a rare magnitude ( M ) 5.8 earthquake in central Virginia. Treating the shaking as if it were a fire drill, millions of workers in Washington, D. C., New York City, and other eastern cities hurriedly exited their buildings, exposing themselves to potentially greater danger from falling bricks and glass; “drop, cover, and hold” would have been a better response. Fortunately, the strong shaking stopped after about 5 seconds and did not cause widespread severe damage or serious injuries. The central Virginia earthquake, among the largest on the eastern seaboard during the approximately 400‐year historic record, occurred as the result of reverse slip on a previously unrecognized north‐to‐northeast striking fault within the Central Virginia seismic zone (CVSZ) (Figure 1a). Many old faults are mapped in the CVSZ, yet no individual strands were previously confirmed to be active. However, persistent low‐level seismicity has been observed during historical times, and instrumental recordings since about 1970 detect ongoing distributed seismicity within the CVSZ [ Bollinger and Hopper , 1971], which has been identified by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as an area of elevated earthquake hazard since 1976 [ Algermissen and Perkins , 1976].
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.007 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it