Predicting dependent binary outcomes through logistic regressions and meta-elliptical copulas
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The authors consider copula models for vectors of binary response variables having marginal distributions that depend on covariates through logistic regressions. They show how to test for residual pairwise dependence between responses, given the explanatory variables. The procedure they propose is based on the score statistic derived from the assumed copula structure under the alternative. The authors further argue that conditional dependence can be conveniently modelled with meta-elliptical copulas, which offer a wide range of positive and negative degrees of association. They call on a composite likelihood to estimate the copula parameters and they provide standard error estimates of the same via linearization. They illustrate their results with Canadian data on the presence or absence of various log grades in trees.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it