Fracture propagation propensity in relation to snow slab avalanche release: Validating the Propagation Saw Test
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The ‘Propagation Saw Test’ (PST) was designed to assess the fracture propagation propensity of weak snowpack layers in relation to snow slab avalanche release. Its predictions were tested against independent field observations of weak layer fracture initiation and slope‐scale fracture propagation (e.g., avalanche release). A total of 170 tests were performed at 23 sites. Approximately 76% of tests correctly predicted the observed slope‐scale fracture propagation or lack thereof; however, 20% of tests predicted that propagation would not occur at sites that had recently propagated fractures. The predictive accuracy of the dataset improves if only test columns approximately 1.0 m long are selected. Critical fracture energy release rate calculations show that the lowest values are found in snowpacks where fractures initiated but did not propagate. This suggests that physical descriptions of propagation propensity in weak snowpack layers should include a sustainability term.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".