Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing: an emulator-based approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. A global sensitivity analysis is used to describe the response of the Earth Climate Model of Intermediate Complexity LOVECLIM to components of the astronomical forcing (longitude of perihelion, obliquity, and eccentricity) assuming interglacial boundary conditions. Compared to previous studies, the sensitivity is global in the sense that it considers the full range of astronomical forcing that occurred during the Quaternary. We provide a geographical description of the variance due to the different components and their combinations and identify non-linear responses. The methodology relies on the estimation of sensitivity measures, which due to the computational cost of LOVECLIM cannot be obtained directly. Instead, we use a fast surrogate of the climate model, called an emulator, in place of the simulator. A space filling design (a maximin Latin hypercube constrained to span the range of astronomical forcings characterising the Pleistocene) is used to determine a set of experiments to run, which are then used to train a reduced-rank Gaussian process emulator. The simulator outputs considered are the principal modes of the annual mean temperature, precipitation, and the growing degree days, extracted using a principal component analysis. The experiments are run on two distinct land surface schemes to address the effect of vegetation response on climate. Sensitivity to initial conditions is also explicitly assessed. Precession and obliquity are found to contribute equally to growing degree days (GDD) in the Northern Hemisphere, and the effects of obliquity on the response of Southern Hemisphere temperature dominate precession effects. Further, compared to the original land-surface scheme with fixed vegetation, the LOVECLIM interactive vegetation induces non-linear responses in the Sahel-Sahara and Arctic sea-ice area. Finally, we find that there is no synergy between obliquity and precession.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".