Circumstantial development and athletic excellence: The role of date of birth and birthplace
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Researchers are only beginning to understand how contextual variables such as date of birth and birthplace affect the development of elite athletes. This article considers the generality of birthplace and date‐of‐birth effects in varying sport contexts. The Study 1 examined how environmental factors associated with an athlete's date‐of‐birth and size of birthplace predict the likelihood of becoming an Olympic athlete in Canada, the United States of America, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Study 2 examined date‐of‐birth and birthplace effects among athletes playing in the first professional league in Germany. Study 2 also examined the validity of birthplace as a proxy for early developmental environment by comparing birthplace with the place of first sports club in four German sports leagues. Results from both studies showed no consistent findings for date of birth. Findings from Study 2 also suggested incongruence between birthplace and location of first sports club as proxies for early developmental environment. Although there was some consistency suggesting elite athletes are less likely to come from very small or excessively large communities, exceptions occurred both within and across sport contexts. These results suggest that any developmental effects of date and place of birth are buffered by broader socio‐cultural factors.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it