Limited evidence for alterations in Gag-mediated HIV replication capacity over the course of the North American epidemic (1979-present)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The extent to which HIV replication capacity (RC) has changed over the epidemic’s course, and the influence of HLA-associated immune pressure as its driving force remains unknown. We performed a comparative study of immune escape and RC in historic (1979-1989) and modern Gag subtype B sequences from North America. Using phylogenetically-informed methods, we identified HLA-associated Gag polymorphisms in a historic cohort (N=239; 1979-1989). We also generated recombinant NL4-3 viruses encoding clonal plasma RNA Gag from 80 historic and 58 modern (2002-2008) sequences. Viral RC was measured using a GFP reporter T-cell assay and results were normalized to NL4-3 controls. 95% of HLA-associated polymorphisms identified in the historic cohort were consistent with published modern escape pathways. Overall, the prevalence of HLA-associated polymorphisms in the general population increased a median 1.3-fold between historic and modern sequences; however in many cases this was influenced by differences in HLA allele frequencies between HIV-infected populations examined. Of note, the prevalence of the B*27-associated R264K escape mutation increased from 0.4 to 1.3% in the general population over time despite B*27 allele frequency remaining constant at 2.5%. Modestly lower viral RC was observed for Gag recombinant viruses constructed from pre-1985 sequences (median 0.86 [IQR 0.78-0.97], N=24) compared to those from 1985-1989 (median 0.98 [IQR 0.87-1.05], N=56) and 2002-2008 (median 0.96 [IQR 0.83-0.1.10], N=58) (p=0.049). In both historic and modern cohorts, host expression of HLA-B*27 was associated with lower RC (p=0.007). Gag codons associated with lower RC, including S67A, were identified in an exploratory analysis. Gag-mediated viral RC may have increased modestly since the beginning of the North American epidemic, despite limited evidence for HLA-driven viral sequence evolution during this time. Although mechanisms driving RC differences remain unclear, results do not support rapid and substantial accumulation of HLA-driven escape mutations in circulating North American HIV-1 sequences.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".