Quantile regression analysis of the rational addiction model: investigating heterogeneity in forward‐looking behavior
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The time path of consumption from a rational addiction (RA) model contains information about an individual's tendency to be forward looking. In this paper, we use quantile regression (QR) techniques to investigate whether the tendency to be forward looking varies systematically with the level of consumption of cigarettes. Using panel data, we find that the forward-looking effect is strongest relative to the addiction effect in the lower quantiles of cigarette consumption, and that the forward-looking effect declines and the addiction effect increases as we move toward the upper quantiles. The results indicate that QR can be used to illuminate the heterogeneity in individuals' tendency to be forward looking even after controlling for factors such as education. QR also gives useful information about the differential impact of policy variables, most notably workplace smoking restrictions, on light and heavy smokers.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it