Colonization pathways of the northeast Atlantic by northern fulmars: a test of James Fisher’s ‘out of Iceland’ hypothesis using museum collections
Bibliographic record
Abstract
When the northern fulmar expanded its northeast Atlantic breeding range from the two known colonies, Grimsey in northern Iceland and St Kilda in the Outer Hebrides, Scotland, about 350 yr ago, the geographical pattern of colonisation – initially the Faroes, then Scotland, followed by Ireland and southern Britain – led James Fisher to propose a sole Icelandic source for the colonists. However, previously‐analysed mitochondrial DNA from contemporary samples indicated a St Kildan origin for at least some colonists. If Fisher's hypothesis is correct and Iceland and not St Kilda was the source population for all of the new colonies, the Icelandic signal should be stronger in museum samples collected 100 yr ago when St Kilda was populated by people who harvested large numbers of fulmars. Patterns of genetic, specifically, nucleotide, diversity suggest an Icelandic origin for the pre‐1940 samples. St Kilda birds contained a number of closely related haplotypes whereas Grimsey, Iceland, the other putative source population, contained diverse haplotypes. These two patterns are indicative of a younger and older population, respectively. When both nuclear aldolase and mitochondrial control region sequence data from historical samples collected on the newly colonized islands were examined, they contained highly divergent haplotypes characteristic of Grimsey, not St Kilda. Comparison of mitochondrial data from samples collected in the early and late 20th century showed an interesting pattern of haplotype turnover on St Kilda. Prior to 1940 the haplotypes present on St Kilda were genetically similar to one another, yet haplotype sampling in the 1990s showed highly divergent haplotypes on the island. We propose that these new haplotypes are not the result of mutation, but immigration from other colonies in the North Atlantic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".