The relative age effect in European professional soccer: Did ten years of research make any difference?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The relative age effect (RAE) refers to an asymmetry in the birth-date distribution favouring players born early in the selection year and discriminating against participants born later in the year. While the RAE effect was initially reported in sport more than two decades ago, there have been few attempts to examine whether player selection strategies have changed over time in light of our improved understanding of the phenomenon. We compared the birth-date distributions of professional soccer players in ten European countries over a 10-year period involving the 2000-2001 and 2010-2011 competitive seasons, respectively. Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests were used to compare differences between the observed and expected birth-date distributions across selection years. Generally, results indicated no change in the RAE over the past 10 years in professional soccer, emphasizing the robust nature of this phenomenon. We propose a change in the structure of youth involvement in soccer to reduce the impact of the RAE on talent identification and selection.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.048 | 0.064 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".