Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract There has been considerable price volatility in the crude oil market since 1861. At times the yearly variations, as reported by the BP Statistical Review, have been minor but on occasion they have been quite significant. The small and large variations have been matched successfully with a Variable Shape Distribution (VSD) model. Remarkably, the comparison between actual price variations and those calculated by the VSD leads to a coefficient of determination (R2) larger than 0.98. Given this validation, we integrate the results with a Global Energy Market (GEM) model developed in 2007 that presented an oil consumption forecast to 2030. Thus far, the forecast has been in line with actual oil consumption to 2012. Contrary to statements made by various oil commentators, the integration of results suggests that the possibilities of seeing sudden, large and permanent increases in future oil prices are very low. Given the huge quantities of conventional and unconventional oil available at or below current market prices, society should be able to substitute between alternative sources long before depletion causes oil to become unduly expensive. Further, a case can be made that with the vast global oil resource base and the significant technological advances being implemented by the industry, oil prices could decrease in the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".