Dispersal of<i>Agrilus planipennis</i>(Coleoptera: Buprestidae) From Discrete Epicenters in Two Outlier Sites
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), a phloem-feeding beetle native to Asia, has become one of the most destructive forest pests in North America. Since it was first identified in 2002 in southeast Michigan and Windsor, Ontario, dozens of isolated A. planipennis populations have been discovered throughout Michigan and Ontario, and in 12 other states and the province of Quebec. We assessed realized A. planipennis dispersal at two discrete outlier sites that originated 1 yr and 3 yr earlier from infested nursery trees. We systematically sampled ash trees within an 800 m radius of the origin of each infestation to locate galleries constructed by the progeny of dispersing A. planipennis adults. Our sampling identified eight trees at the 1 yr site infested with a mean +/- SE of 11.6 +/- 8.4 A. planipennis larvae and 12 trees at the 3 yr site with 25.8 +/- 11.1 larvae per meter squared. Dendroentomological analysis indicated that A. planipennis populations were predominantly undergoing a 2 yr (semivoltine) life cycle at both sites. Colonized trees were found out to 638 and 540 m from the epicenters at the 1 yr and 3 yr sites, respectively. Logistic regression was used to determine whether the likelihood of A. planipennis colonization was affected by wind direction, ash phloem abundance, distance from the epicenter, or land-use type (i.e., wooded, residential, agricultural, or urban). Results show that the probability of A. planipennis colonization was significantly affected by ash phloem abundance and decreased with distance from the epicenter.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.014 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it