Dispersal of<i>Agrilus planipennis</i>(Coleoptera: Buprestidae) From Discrete Epicenters in Two Outlier Sites
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), a phloem-feeding beetle native to Asia, has become one of the most destructive forest pests in North America. Since it was first identified in 2002 in southeast Michigan and Windsor, Ontario, dozens of isolated A. planipennis populations have been discovered throughout Michigan and Ontario, and in 12 other states and the province of Quebec. We assessed realized A. planipennis dispersal at two discrete outlier sites that originated 1 yr and 3 yr earlier from infested nursery trees. We systematically sampled ash trees within an 800 m radius of the origin of each infestation to locate galleries constructed by the progeny of dispersing A. planipennis adults. Our sampling identified eight trees at the 1 yr site infested with a mean +/- SE of 11.6 +/- 8.4 A. planipennis larvae and 12 trees at the 3 yr site with 25.8 +/- 11.1 larvae per meter squared. Dendroentomological analysis indicated that A. planipennis populations were predominantly undergoing a 2 yr (semivoltine) life cycle at both sites. Colonized trees were found out to 638 and 540 m from the epicenters at the 1 yr and 3 yr sites, respectively. Logistic regression was used to determine whether the likelihood of A. planipennis colonization was affected by wind direction, ash phloem abundance, distance from the epicenter, or land-use type (i.e., wooded, residential, agricultural, or urban). Results show that the probability of A. planipennis colonization was significantly affected by ash phloem abundance and decreased with distance from the epicenter.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".