Comparison of different strategies in prenatal screening for Down's syndrome: cost effectiveness analysis of computer simulation
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To assess and compare the cost effectiveness of three different strategies for prenatal screening for Down's syndrome (integrated test, sequential screening, and contingent screenings) and to determine the most useful cut-off values for risk. DESIGN: Computer simulations to study integrated, sequential, and contingent screening strategies with various cut-offs leading to 19 potential screening algorithms. DATA SOURCES: The computer simulation was populated with data from the Serum Urine and Ultrasound Screening Study (SURUSS), real unit costs for healthcare interventions, and a population of 110 948 pregnancies from the province of Québec for the year 2001. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost effectiveness ratios, incremental cost effectiveness ratios, and screening options' outcomes. RESULTS: The contingent screening strategy dominated all other screening options: it had the best cost effectiveness ratio ($C26,833 per case of Down's syndrome) with fewer procedure related euploid miscarriages and unnecessary terminations (respectively, 6 and 16 per 100,000 pregnancies). It also outperformed serum screening at the second trimester. In terms of the incremental cost effectiveness ratio, contingent screening was still dominant: compared with screening based on maternal age alone, the savings were $C30,963 per additional birth with Down's syndrome averted. Contingent screening was the only screening strategy that offered early reassurance to the majority of women (77.81%) in first trimester and minimised costs by limiting retesting during the second trimester (21.05%). For the contingent and sequential screening strategies, the choice of cut-off value for risk in the first trimester test significantly affected the cost effectiveness ratios (respectively, from $C26,833 to $C37,260 and from $C35,215 to $C45,314 per case of Down's syndrome), the number of procedure related euploid miscarriages (from 6 to 46 and from 6 to 45 per 100,000 pregnancies), and the number of unnecessary terminations (from 16 to 26 and from 16 to 25 per 100,000 pregnancies). CONCLUSIONS: Contingent screening, with a first trimester cut-off value for high risk of 1 in 9, is the preferred option for prenatal screening of women for pregnancies affected by Down's syndrome.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it