A Machine-Learned Predictor of Colonic Polyps Based on Urinary Metabolomics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We report an automated diagnostic test that uses the NMR spectrum of a single spot urine sample to accurately distinguish patients who require a colonoscopy from those who do not. Moreover, our approach can be adjusted to tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity. We developed our system using a group of 988 patients (633 normal and 355 who required colonoscopy) who were all at average or above-average risk for developing colorectal cancer. We obtained a metabolic profile of each subject, based on the urine samples collected from these subjects, analyzed via (1)H-NMR and quantified using targeted profiling. Each subject then underwent a colonoscopy, the gold standard to determine whether he/she actually had an adenomatous polyp, a precursor to colorectal cancer. The metabolic profiles, colonoscopy outcomes, and medical histories were then analysed using machine learning to create a classifier that could predict whether a future patient requires a colonoscopy. Our empirical studies show that this classifier has a sensitivity of 64% and a specificity of 65% and, unlike the current fecal tests, allows the administrators of the test to adjust the tradeoff between the two.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".