Household Activity Rescheduling in Response to Automobile Reduction Scenarios
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Forecasting the enduring and wider implications of emerging travel demand management and automobile reduction policies has proved to be a challenging task. Travel behavior researchers point to the need for more in-depth research into the underlying activity-travel scheduling processes as a means to improve the ability to do so. The objective of this research is to explore the household rescheduling and adaptation process to vehicle reduction scenarios. Descriptive results from two, small-sample, in-depth experiments are presented. The first experiment focused on households’ response to a fuel prices increase, whereas the second focused on the response of two-vehicle households to long-term removal of one vehicle from the household. Results indicate that households are aware of a broad range of possible adaptation strategies, including not only mode changes but also a wide variety of changes in activities, planning, and longer-term lifestyle changes. When people were asked to actually implement such stated strategies under realistic conditions, a much more elaborate behavioral response was elicited. This included multiple rescheduling decisions involving several activities and household members over the course of a day or even several days. Thus, even relatively straightforward stated response strategies often lead to interconnected primary and secondary effects on observed activities and travel, realized through a sequence of rescheduling decisions over time and space and across household members. These results suggest that an explicit accounting of rescheduling decision sequences in forecasting models would enhance their behavioral validity and accuracy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".