Tropical links of the Arctic Oscillation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A primitive equation dry atmospheric model is used to investigate the response of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) to diabatic forcing. Integrations are made for 51 winter seasons (DJF) from 1948/49 to 1998/99. For each winter the model uses a time‐averaged forcing that is calculated empirically from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. The ensemble mean of the simulations reproduces much of the observed AO interannual variability. Two additional sets of experiments are conducted. In one case the interannually varying forcing is prescribed only in the tropics, while in another it is prescribed only in the extratropics. These simulations indicate that a significant part of the interannual variability of the wintertime AO, as well as its trend, is linked to forcing from the tropics, and that extratropical forcing has no role to play, independent of the tropical forcing, in reconstructing the observed AO variability.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".