Trends in ship wind speeds adjusted for observation method and height
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Globally averaged wind speeds from archived ship reports show an increasing trend since the 1940s, which previous studies attributed to the gradual shift from visually estimated to anemometer‐measured winds, and an increase in mean anemometer height. To test this hypothesis, adjustments to account for these changes were applied to individual ship wind observations in the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). Annual means calculated from adjusted reports were compared to reanalysis near‐surface winds in consistently well‐sampled regions for the period 1958–2002. The adjustments to individual ship wind reports for known biases improve the homogeneity over the entire period and remove trends, prior to the early 1980s. However, for the 21‐year period 1982–2002, trends remain in the annual mean spatially averaged adjusted winds, of 0.4 ms −1 decade −1 (6% decade −1 ) for estimated speeds, and of 0.2 ms −1 decade −1 (3% decade −1 ) for measured speeds. In contrast, co‐located reanalysis near‐surface wind speeds show little change, 1% decade −1 or less. Anemometers were installed on increasing numbers of ships during the period of study, even as many of these ships continued to report estimated winds. Part of the trend in estimated wind speeds is probably spurious, most likely a result of observers being increasingly influenced by readings from anemometers located well above 10‐m. This influence is indicated by the gradual reduction in the tendency to underestimate nighttime marine winds. Results confirm earlier findings that reanalysis near‐surface winds were biased low. The paper summarizes methods that could be employed to account for remaining inhomogeneities and thereby improve the quality of the marine wind climate record. Copyright © 2007 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".