Twelve-year depressive symptom trajectories and their predictors in a community sample of older adults
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study is to understand the long-term course and outcomes of depressive symptoms among older adults in the community by examining trajectories of depressive symptoms over time and identifying profiles of depressive symptoms predicting different trajectories. METHOD: We measured depressive symptoms biennially for up to 12 years, using the modified Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression (mCES-D) scale, in 1260 community-based adults aged 65+ years. We determined latent trajectories of total mCES-D scores over time. We identified symptom profiles based on subgroups of baseline depressive symptoms derived from factor analysis, and examined their associations with the different trajectories. RESULTS: Six trajectories were identified. Two had one or no depressive symptoms at baseline and flat trajectories during follow-up. Two began with low baseline symptom scores and then diverged; female sex and functional disability were associated with future increases in depressive symptoms. Two trajectories began with high baseline scores but had different slopes: the higher trajectory was associated with medical burden, higher overall baseline score, and higher baseline scores on symptom profiles including low self-esteem, interpersonal difficulties, neurovegetative symptoms, and anhedonia. Mortality was higher among those in the higher trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: In the community at large, those with minimal depressive symptoms are more likely to experience future increases in symptoms if they are women and have functional disability. Among those with higher current symptom levels, depression is more likely to persist over time in individuals who have greater medical burden and specific depressive symptoms.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it