Impact of tropospheric and stratospheric data assimilation on mesospheric prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Numerical experiments are used to assess the potential benefit of the assimilation of tropospheric and stratospheric observations on mesospheric prediction. A simulated atmosphere, taken as truth, is created using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). The truth is sampled at the locations of the measurements from the actual observing system to produce observations, which are then assimilated with theCMAM-DAS (Data Assimilation System). Obtained forecasts are compared with the truth, and error statistics are calculated. An assessment based on predictability shows that upward propagation of information resulting from the assimilation of tropospheric and stratospheric observations improves the mesosphere in the largest scales (with horizontal wavenumbers less than approximately 10). At the same time, the principal inability of the system to predict mesospheric small scales is demonstrated.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".