The association between alcohol restriction policies and vehicle-related mortality in Cali, Colombia, 1998-2008
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mena, J., Sánchez, Á., Gutiérrez, M., Puyana, J., & Suffoleto, B. (2014). The association between alcohol restriction policies and vehicle-related mortality in Cali, Colombia, 1998-2008. The International Journal Of Alcohol And Drug Research, 3(2), 149-158. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.7895/ijadr.v3i2.157Aims: To determine whether the implementation of alcohol control policies was associated with changes in the incidence of road traffic deaths.Design: Ecologic study conducted using an interrupted time series analysis. Full restrictive polices banned alcohol between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. Most restrictive polices prohibited alcohol between 1 a.m. and 10 a.m. Restrictive policies prohibited alcohol between 2 a.m. and 10 a.m. Moderately restrictive policies banned alcohol between 3 a.m. and 10 a.m. Lax policies prohibited alcohol between 4 a.m. and 10 a.m.Setting: We used data of road traffic mortality in the population of Cali, Colombia from 1998 to 2008.Participants: The population of Cali in 2008 was 2,184,753 inhabitants; 47% were male.Measures: Aggregated daily counts of road traffic deaths. Restrictive policies were compared with lax policies to estimate the effect of reducing hours of alcohol availability using multiple negative binomial regressions.Findings: There was a decreased risk of road traffic mortality in periods when moderately restrictive policies were in effect (IRR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.72–0.97, p = 0.019). There was an even lower risk of road traffic deaths in periods when most restrictive policies were in effect (IRR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.58–0.85, p < 0.001). In motorcyclists, most restrictive (IRR 0.55, 95% CI 0.38–0.81, p = 0.002) and full restrictive policies (IRR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29–0.94, p = 0.032) were associated with decreased risk of mortality.Conclusions: Our findings support more restrictive alcohol control policies to reduce road traffic mortality. Specifically, reducing the time of alcohol availability was associated with a decrease in road traffic death rates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".