Risk of Stroke in Women Exposed to Low-Dose Oral Contraceptives
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Use of the oral contraceptive pill (OCP) has been reported to be associated with stroke. With current OCPs containing less than 50 micro g of ethinyl estradiol, and many earlier studies reporting the association between OCPs and stroke, subjected to biases, we determined whether such an association exists and, if so, the magnitude of the risk. METHODS: Two independent searches were conducted to obtain relevant articles from MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Science Citation (1970 to June 2000). Eligible articles published in English describing OCP use and stroke outcomes were retrieved, and relevant data were abstracted. Pooling of results from these studies was performed using odds ratios (ORs) provided, and heterogeneity was calculated using chi(2) analysis. RESULTS: From 779 potential articles, 36 eligible studies describing 20 distinct populations were retrieved (4 cohort and 16 case-control studies). The pooled OR from the cohort studies demonstrated no increased stroke risk with OCP use (0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-1.78; P =.01); the pooled OR from the case-control studies showed a significant association (2.13; 95% CI, 1.59-2.86; P<.001). The risk of stroke with OCP use, however, was significant only with thrombotic stroke (2.74; 95% CI, 2.24-3.35; P =.009) and not with hemorrhagic stroke or stroke death. There was statistically significant heterogeneity among these studies, and potential biases and confounders were not adequately addressed. CONCLUSIONS: These results cast doubt on a true association between low-dose OCPs and stroke because of the low absolute magnitude of the ORs, the severe methodological limitations, and the ORs of less than 1.0 in the cohort studies. The association is tenuous at best and perhaps nonexistent.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".