Predictive validity of the Static-99R and its dimensions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The aims of the current paper were to identify dimensions of the Static-99R, the most commonly used sex-offender actuarial scale, and to test their predictive validity. Exploratory factor analysis extracted three dimensions from the scale: sexual criminality, general criminality and detachment. Cox regression analyses revealed that different actuarial dimensions predicted different recidivism outcomes; sexual criminality predicted only sexual recidivism, while general criminality predicted only non-sexual violent recidivism and non-sexual non-violent recidivism. Detachment had an inconsistent predictive validity. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses indicated that the latest Static-99 revision, the Static-99R, outperformed its predecessor in virtually every way. These same analyses revealed that the Static-99R was as effective with sexual aggressors of women as with sexual aggressors of children.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".