Estimation of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule Using Real-Time U.S. Data
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper extends the work in Orphanides (2003) by re-examining the empirical evidence for a Taylor rule in a nonlinear framework. In doing so, it updates the Greenbook dataset used by the afore mentioned author to the most recent available period. A three-regime threshold regression model is utilized to capture the possibly asymmetric policy reaction function used by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The theoretical foundations for such an approach to monetary policy are discussed in Orphanides and Wilcox (2002). Our results indicate that the estimated Taylor rule for the U.S., based on real-time Greenbook data for the period 1982:3-2003:4, is probably nonlinear.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it