Isotopic tracing of the impact of mobility on infectious disease: The origin of people with treponematosis buried in hull, England, in the late medieval period
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Treponematosis has been one of the most studied and debated infectious diseases in paleopathology, particularly from the standpoint of its origin, evolution, and transmission. This study links evidence for treponematosis in skeletons from the 14th-16th century AD cemetery of the Augustinian friary of Hull Magistrates Court, England, with data from stable isotope analysis to test the hypothesis that the people with treponemal disease buried at this site were not locally born and raised. The objective is to explore the potential of using stable isotope data to track the place of origin and extent of mobility of individuals with an infectious disease. Dental enamel samples of 12 skeletons were selected for strontium ((87) Sr/(86) Sr ratio) and oxygen (δ(18) O) stable isotope analysis based on the presence (six - diseased) or absence (six - controls) of bone changes associated with treponemal disease. The oxygen isotope ratios of all but three individuals (1047, 1121, 823) overlapped at two standard deviations with the inferred local precipitation range, and only one individual (1216) had a strontium isotope ratio outside the regional range. Two of the four had probable/possible treponemal bone changes. Those with treponemal bone changes were not demonstrably more likely to be migrants than those without such lesions. However, because of extensive documentary evidence for trade with the Baltic Sea area, and for merchants from towns such as Stralsund, Danzig and Elbing being in Hull, it is very plausible that the four migrants came from the Baltic area or even southern Sweden.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.031 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".