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Record W2027280473 · doi:10.1136/bmj.321.7266.947

How can cigarette smuggling be reduced?

2000· article· en· W2027280473 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueBMJ · 2000
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldHealth Professions
TopicGlobal Health Care Issues
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsRevenueIncentiveTobacco controlConsumption (sociology)Tobacco industryBusinessGovernment (linguistics)Black marketConventionInternational tradeGovernment revenuePublic healthEconomic policyDevelopment economicsEconomicsMarket economyPolitical scienceLawMedicineFinance

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The tobacco industry has argued that tobacco smuggling is caused by market forces—by the price differences between countries, which create an incentive to smuggle cigarettes from “cheaper” countries to “more expensive” ones. The industry has urged governments to solve the problem by reducing taxes, which will also, it says, restore revenue. The facts contradict all these assertions. Smuggling is more prevalent in “cheaper” countries, and where taxes have been reduced, such as in Canada, consumption has risen and revenue fallen. There are, however, countries that have solved the problem by better control, Spain being the most impressive example to date, and the new World Health Organization framework convention may at last promote control of tobacco smuggling at the level at which it must be tackled—globally. Tobacco smuggling has become a critical public health issue because it brings tobacco on to markets cheaply, making cigarettes more affordable and thus stimulating consumption, consequently increasing the burden of ill health caused by its use. Smuggling is not a small phenomenon: we have estimated that, globally, a third of legal cigarette exports disappear into the contraband market.1 This extraordinary proportion results in a second key effect of smuggling—the loss of thousands of millions of dollars of revenue to government treasuries. We also showed in our earlier studies that tobacco smuggling defies apparent economic logic. Common sense might suggest that cigarettes would be smuggled from countries where they are cheap (southern Europe, for example) to expensive countries (such as northern Europe) and that this is due simply to price differences between these countries, as the tobacco industry claims. Although this does happen, it is not the largest type of smuggling, and in Europe there is far more smuggling from north to south rather than the reverse.2 In fact, smuggling occurs in all parts …

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.212
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.086
GPT teacher head0.453
Teacher spread0.367 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Quick stats

Citations103
Published2000
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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