Source Attribution of Health Benefits from Air Pollution Abatement in Canada and the United States: An Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Decision making regarding air pollution can be better informed if air quality impacts are traced back to individual emission sources. Adjoint or backward sensitivity analysis is a modeling tool that can achieve this goal by allowing for quantification of how emissions from sources in different locations influence human health metrics. OBJECTIVES: We attributed short-term mortality (valuated as an overall "health benefit") in Canada and the United States to anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions across North America. METHODS: We integrated epidemiological data derived from Canadian and U.S. time-series studies with the adjoint of an air quality model and also estimated influences of anthropogenic emissions at each location on nationwide health benefits. RESULTS: We found significant spatiotemporal variability in estimated health benefit influences of NO(x) and VOC emission reductions on Canada and U.S. mortality. The largest estimated influences on Canada (up to $250,000/day) were from emissions originating in the Quebec City-Windsor Corridor, where population centers are concentrated. Estimated influences on the United States tend to be widespread and more substantial owing to both larger emissions and larger populations. The health benefit influences calculated using 24-hr average ozone (O(3)) concentrations are lower in magnitude than estimates calculated using daily 1-hr maximum O(3) concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Source specificity of the adjoint approach provides valuable information for guiding air quality decision making. Adjoint results suggest that the health benefits of reducing NO(x) and VOC emissions are substantial and highly variable across North America.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".