Global warming and the Arctic: a new world beyond the reach of the Grinnellian niche?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The levels of CO(2) in the atmosphere have already far exceeded values attained at any other time over at least the past 650,000 years. Temperature increases due to rising greenhouse gases will be amplified in Arctic and subarctic regions, and winter warming will be enhanced relative to summer warming. Climate in large areas of high latitudes may have no analogue in current climates or those of the recent geological past. Experimental field manipulations and laboratory studies indicate that plants will exhibit complex responses in photosynthesis, growth rates, phenology and reproductive functioning due to this combination of increasing temperatures, changing seasonality and increasing levels of CO(2). The resulting changes in the abundance, distribution, growth rates and production of fruit and phenology of plant species will in turn impact animal populations. In predicting what the future biota of the 'New Arctic' will be like and developing appropriate conservation strategies, Grinnellian niche-based approaches are likely to be insufficient, and experimental ecological studies of organism response to specific anticipated changes in climate are crucial.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".