An application of infinite horizon stochastic dynamic programming in multi-stage project investment decision-making
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In multi-stage project investment decision-making with uncertainty, risk mitigation plays a vital role. The return on investment (ROI) that will be realised in making a particular decision quite often carries a high degree of uncertainty, with an increased number of competing investors entering to the market every day. In this research, our objective is to develop a technique for a multi-stage project investment decision problem that deals with uncertainty in ROI and complex interrelated state transition dynamics. We do this by formulating our problem as an infinite horizon stochastic dynamic programming (IHSDP) problem and solve it to maximise the total return over an infinite time horizon. We have implemented our solution to the project investment decision problem in a simple case study using three well-known stochastic dynamic programming algorithms. Our simulation results show that the IHSDP algorithms are useful in making optimum investment decisions in an uncertain business environment.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it