Observational evidence of an intensifying hydrological cycle in northern Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Trends and variability in the 1964–2007 annual streamflow for 45 rivers spanning 5.2 × 106 km2 of northern Canada are investigated. Discharge averages 1153 km3 yr−1 with a standard deviation of 71.4 km3 yr−1 and coefficient of variation (CVQ) of 6.2% over the 44‐year period. A trend analysis reveals a recent (1989–2007) 15.5% increase in the annual flows owing to much‐above average values recorded over the past decade. Trends in CVQ computed from 11‐year moving windows of annual streamflows exhibit spatially coherent signals with increasing variability across most of northern Canada, excluding some rivers with outlets to the Labrador Sea and eastern James Bay. For the period of interest, 46% and 30% of the available gauged area and river discharge, respectively, experienced detectable increases in variability. This provides observational evidence of an intensifying hydrological cycle in northern Canada, consistent with other regions of the pan‐Arctic domain.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".