The Precocity-Longevity Hypothesis: Earlier Peaks in Career Achievement Predict Shorter Lives
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A new precocity-longevity hypothesis that those who reach career peaks earlier tend to have shorter lives was tested with 23 samples of eminent persons (N = 1,026), including U.S. presidents, French presidents, Canadian prime ministers, British prime ministers, New Zealand prime ministers, Australian prime ministers, male British monarchs, popes, U.S. Supreme Court justices, U.S. vice presidents, Nova Scotia premiers, Nobel prize winners, Oscar winners for acting, signers of the U.S. Declaration of Independence, and distinguished American psychologists. Support was found in 22 samples. Supplementary analyses showed that the association between precocity and life span is robust and apparently does not result wholly from the artifact of persons with younger sample recruitment ages having shorter life expectancies or from a sample selection artifact described by D. K. Simonton. Explanatory dynamics based on stress and Type A personality are suggested.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".