Estimating the waiting time of multi-priority emergency patients with downstream blocking
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
To characterize the coupling effect between patient flow to access the emergency department (ED) and that to access the inpatient unit (IU), we develop a model with two connected queues: one upstream queue for the patient flow to access the ED and one downstream queue for the patient flow to access the IU. Building on this patient flow model, we employ queueing theory to estimate the average waiting time across patients. Using priority specific wait time targets, we further estimate the necessary number of ED and IU resources. Finally, we investigate how an alternative way of accessing ED (Fast Track) impacts the average waiting time of patients as well as the necessary number of ED/IU resources. This model as well as the analysis on patient flow can help the designer or manager of a hospital make decisions on the allocation of ED/IU resources in a hospital.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it