Effects of Shock Waves on Freeway Crash Likelihood
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study examines how the formation and dissipation of a queue indicated by shock waves affect the likelihood of crash occurrence on freeways. Using one-minute average volume and density data collected from a section of the Gardiner Expressway in Toronto, changes in volume and density 3-10 minutes prior to the time of crash occurrence were observed. Types of shock wave and the shock wave speeds were estimated and related to the frequencies of the crashes where the shock wave existed before they occurred. It was found that typical shock wave types vary in different time periods of day due to different traffic conditions. The comparison with the volume-density data for the non-crash cases using logistic regression models shows that crashes are more likely to occur when the forward shock wave speed is lower. This indicates that slower vehicle progression in near-capacity conditions and slower dissipation of a queue in congested conditions are more likely to cause crashes. The results provide insights into better understanding of how shock waves affect the crash likelihood.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it