Factors Affecting the US Current Account: An Historical Decomposition
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The US current account deficit was around 6½ per cent of GDP in 2006, having risen by 2 per cent of GDP since 2002 when the dollar reached its peak and started to decline. Between the peak in 2002 and the last quarter of 2006 the dollar fell by 13.4 per cent in effective terms using 2003 trade weights, and it might have been expected that the current account would have improved. However, over the same period the household savings rate fell by more than 4 per cent of personal incomes and private sector investment rose by 0.6 per cent of GDP. At the same time, the public sector deficit improved by around 1 per cent of GDP, but this was not enough to offset the major decline in net savings in the private sector. These domestic imbalances have been partly responsible for the deterioration in the current account, and appear to have more than offset the impacts of the decline in the dollar. In addition, since 2002 the oil price has risen and this has led to a significant deterioration in the US current account.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it