The circumpolar active layer monitoring (calm) program: Research designs and initial results
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program, designed to observe the response of the active layer and near‐surface permafrost to climate change, currently incorporates more than 100 sites involving 15 investigating countries in both hemispheres. In general, the active layer responds consistently to forcing by air temperature on an interannual basis. The relatively few long‐term data sets available from northern high‐latitude sites demonstrate substantial interannual and interdecadal fluctuations. Increased thaw penetration, thaw subsidence, and development of thermokarst are observed at some sites, indicating degradation of warmer permafrost. During the mid‐ to late‐1990s, sites in Alaska and northwestern Canada experienced maximum thaw depth in 1998 and a minimum in 2000; these values are consistent with the warmest and coolest summers. The CALM network is part of the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN‐P). GTN‐P observations consist of both the active layer measurements and the permafrost thermal state measured in boreholes. The CALM program requires additional multi‐decadal observations. Sites in the Antarctic and elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere are presently being added to the bipolar network.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.040 | 0.019 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".