Social and economic impacts on the Gulf region in general and Qatar in particular of the expected energy independence of the western hemisphere
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent projections for energy production on the American continent (from Canada to South America) are suggesting potential energy independence for the western hemisphere in the next fifteen years. The very large, newly found, oil reserves (mainly off the coast of Brazil), the technological progresses (allowing for the safe exploitation of tar sands in Canada) and the natural gas potential of shale gas in North America are changing the energy equation on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. What has been historically the Gulf region's main customer of hydrocarbon is likely to significantly decrease its import in the near future. Although other emerging regions (India, China, Africa) should make up for this loss in the short term, the global efforts to mitigate climate change are bound to encourage natural gas consumption over oil. GCC countries will thus face a strong challenge to diversify their customer networks and adapt their energy mix production - drifting away from oil towards natural gas and renewables. Each of the GCC countries will face different challenges, depending on their resource endowment and infrastructure network. This research aims at analyzing the potential domestic impact of this new scarcity of demand. Each country in the Gulf region has developed a unique set of domestic institutions and economic structures whose resilience will be challenged. This research implements comparative politics, theories and lenses, especially Thomas G. Moore's framework of analysis assessing the state's capacity to absorb external shocks and issue national responses for economic adjustment. It also reverses the argument developed by Ikenberry on European and American countries comparative economic responses to the oil shock in the 1970s. The objective of this study is to inform Gulf countries' governments of the best original set of proactive policies and reforms that need to be adopted to ensure sustainable development, social progress, political stability and post-oil economic transition.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".