Hydroclimatic analysis of an ice-scar tree-ring chronology of a high-boreal lake in Northern Québec, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ice-scars were investigated to reconstruct the ice-flood history of Corvette Lake in Northern Québec in an attempt to determine the hydrological threshold of shore ice and identify the accompanying climatic conditions. The ice-scar record started around 1850 and showed a rapid increase in frequency at the start of the 1930s, while trees damaged by the ice were already mature and established over several decades. The study supports the hypothesis that this shift could correspond to an increase in flood discharge. Hydrological analysis of every event that occurred since 1961, the year during which instrumental recording began, indicated that scar frequency and scar maximum height were strongly correlated with average recession discharge, average flood discharge, peak discharge and flood onset. Ice-scars provided a discontinuous record of discrete events triggered by hydrologic extremes that were used to document the instrumental record using logistic regression. Results from multiple regressions suggested that ice-scars correspond to years with highs in total precipitation from January to March and from May to June, in the sum of degree-days of frost in April, and in the sum of degree-days of heat from October to April. Although imperfect for reconstructing past events, this study exemplifies the potential use of ice-scars for extending the historical record of ice-floods with hydroclimatic significance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".