Thomas McKeown, Meet Fidel Castro: Physicians, Population Health and the Cuban Paradox
Bibliographic record
Abstract
About 40 years ago, Thomas McKeown demonstrated that the historic decline in the great killer diseases owed little or nothing to progress in medicine. A generation of research on population health followed, highlighting the large social gradients in health within populations. These vary greatly across societies, but appear largely unrelated to medical care. Medicine was acknowledged as "powerful, but within limits"; the major determinants of health lie elsewhere. We may have missed something. Cuba has achieved "first world" population health status despite a minimal economic base. Far from marginalizing medicine, Cuba has by far the world's largest physician workforce. But doctors' roles are significantly expanded. The system seems to work.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.012 | 0.024 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".