Analysis of early tree height in forest genetic trials is enhanced by including a spatially correlated residual
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study explores the use of a mixed linear model including spatially correlated residuals in addition to the traditional randomized complete block (RCB) analysis in 12 forest genetic trials. The analysis of early height data from progeny and clonal tests of three species (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr., Pinus pinaster Ait., and Pinus radiata D. Don) showed that there was significant spatial variation in all trials. Adding a basic first-order separable autoregressive error term more effectively modelled the spatial variation than the RCB model and greatly reduced the block and plot variances. There was no evidence that extended spatial modelling was required. The spatial analysis greatly improved the accuracy of genetic value estimation in some trials and was accompanied by large changes in rank of the genetic entries and by greater gains in selection relative to the RCB analysis.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it