A degree-day model to initiate fungicide spray programs for management of grape powdery mildew [<i>Erysiphe necator</i>]
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Powdery mildew, caused by Erysiphe necator, is the most important grape disease in Quebec, Canada. Based on the premise that the production of secondary inoculum is a key factor in powdery mildew development, a model based on degree-day accumulation was developed and validated as a tool to initiate a calendar-based fungicide program. The Richard%rsquo;s model was used to describe the proportion of seasonal airborne inoculum as a function of degree-days (base 6 °C) accumulated since the Eichhorn-Lorenz grape phenological stage 7 (2%ndash;3 fully expanded leaves). The model explained 91% of the variation in proportion of seasonal airborne inoculum and 96% when validated against independent observations. Reliability of the model to time the initiation of a standard fungicide spray program was validated in experimental vineyards from 2004 to 2007. The following management schemes were compared: (1) no fungicides (control); (2) fungicides applied at fixed intervals starting at the 3%ndash;4 leaves growth stage; (3) a fungicide spray program initiated based on the degree-day model; and (4) a fungicide spray program initiated based on both the degree-day model and airborne inoculum concentration. Depending on years and cultivars, the use of the model reduced the number of fungicide sprays by 40% to 55%. The degree-day model could be used as a component of a risk management system for grape powdery mildew to estimate the need for fungicide sprays before bloom or to time the initiation of a fungicide spray program.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it